Expert Shares Poultry Trend Insights

Charlene M. Shupp
Espenshade
Special Sections Editor

GRANTVILLE, Pa. — Across all types of poultry production, the take-home message from Stacey Edwards of Agri Stats is that feed costs have been taking an increasing portion of the poultry production pie.

Edwards spoke at the Pennsylvania Poultry Sales and Service Conference/Northeastern Conference on Avian Diseases here last week. Agri Stats monitors trends in the poultry, swine and feed industry.

For the broiler industry, feed prices have had an impact on the boneless, skinless chicken breast and leg quarter market. Edwards noted that there was such a surplus of leg quarters last fall that some of the product went for rendering, not for consumption. Since then, prices for both products have begun to recover. Wings follow a more seasonal trend, with prices rising for football season.

Taking a longer view, Edwards said the poultry industry should be credited for its improvements. Since 1988, the number of field condemnations has declined, broiler livability is up, and growth rate has improved significantly.

“Pat yourself on the back, we have improved management,” she said of the advances made in the industry.

However, the most notable change continues to be what looks like a new norm for the broiler industry. The feed costs have shifted from 51 percent of production costs in 2000 to 61 percent this year. She noted last year it was 64 percent.

“It’s definitely a different picture that producers have to deal with,” she said.

Production costs for turkeys in the past year was “a hard pill to swallow” as the live production costs for toms increased by 49 percent from October 2007 to October 2008. Fortunately, production costs have slid back slightly.

Comparing overall production of turkeys in 2002 to 2009, feed costs have increased from 53 percent to 63 percent.

The egg layer industry, while facing challenges, has sustained a better price for their eggs compared to the meat bird industries in the past year. The prices have dropped, but not to the levels seen in the other industries last fall.

Looking at feed ingredients for poultry production, Edwards said that price trends for corn and DDGS (dried distillers grains) are parallel. When the price of corn rises or falls, DDGS follows.

In a poultry ration, there is a limit to how many pounds of DDGS can replace corn. The maximum replacement is about 5 percent, according to Edwards. How much DDGS will be used on the farm is yet to be seen.

“I feel that 5 to 5.5 percent is where we are going to hold steady,” she said. “I think this is a safe and manageable inclusion for nutritionists.”

Charlene Shupp Espenshade can be reached at cshupp.eph@lnpnews.com.